* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 53 59 65 70 75 79 81 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 53 59 65 70 75 79 81 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 33 36 42 49 57 66 73 77 82 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 17 18 9 10 5 3 5 7 6 9 9 11 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 2 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 289 286 289 307 328 312 345 294 346 197 172 236 279 333 7 48 60 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 149 151 151 144 142 144 149 153 148 149 144 141 151 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 142 141 134 124 117 120 127 134 131 129 125 125 140 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 55 56 57 57 54 52 51 52 49 49 42 40 40 44 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 6 -4 -7 -30 -33 -32 -50 -59 -17 47 75 89 95 27 -24 200 MB DIV -10 -2 7 1 -2 -9 -2 0 -2 9 11 2 -12 11 37 13 4 700-850 TADV 0 7 10 -2 -1 -4 2 0 2 0 4 3 6 2 4 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1960 1836 1696 1577 1488 1400 1359 1370 1423 1462 1478 1508 1548 1642 1816 2109 1921 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.1 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.8 28.8 29.4 29.8 29.5 28.5 27.1 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.8 48.8 50.6 52.4 54.1 56.7 58.8 59.7 59.4 58.1 56.4 54.5 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 21 20 19 17 12 8 3 4 8 10 10 7 6 10 18 25 HEAT CONTENT 13 19 13 21 25 29 26 21 22 25 32 22 25 20 23 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 22 CX,CY: -19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 35. 40. 45. 49. 51. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 46.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% 1.0% 5.8% 6.1% 10.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/24/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 53 59 65 70 75 79 81 83 86 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 48 53 59 65 70 75 79 81 83 86 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 49 55 61 66 71 75 77 79 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 42 48 54 59 64 68 70 72 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT