* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 39 41 46 49 56 62 72 77 85 91 100 102 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 39 41 46 49 56 62 72 77 85 91 100 102 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 40 41 41 42 45 49 55 62 71 80 88 94 101 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 17 16 19 13 10 8 17 10 14 13 17 14 5 1 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 0 2 2 2 3 0 3 1 0 -5 -4 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 272 286 288 293 301 337 326 318 319 289 295 256 260 233 270 280 210 SST (C) 26.5 27.2 27.3 27.4 28.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 131 132 132 141 155 154 147 146 145 148 152 152 151 151 153 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 129 127 126 133 141 135 123 119 119 122 128 128 128 130 137 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.1 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 57 60 56 53 51 51 53 52 54 51 54 54 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 7 11 13 18 20 24 27 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 0 -11 -29 -41 -27 -37 -41 -64 -30 -2 59 84 135 136 200 MB DIV -3 4 10 4 -1 0 -4 12 0 30 -1 29 3 15 26 70 90 700-850 TADV 3 -1 6 11 -5 0 -1 0 3 6 11 8 0 0 3 6 -11 LAND (KM) 2002 2009 1879 1751 1646 1514 1443 1442 1475 1484 1528 1574 1545 1568 1690 1793 1566 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 26.1 28.0 29.1 30.0 30.6 31.0 30.9 30.3 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 46.7 48.6 50.4 52.1 55.3 57.8 59.4 60.0 59.6 58.6 57.4 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 21 19 18 14 11 6 3 3 5 7 6 6 9 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 12 12 15 25 29 23 23 21 18 22 28 27 27 24 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 25 CX,CY: -19/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -5. -3. 3. 5. 10. 12. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 11. 14. 21. 27. 37. 42. 50. 56. 65. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.3 44.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.9% 4.9% 3.7% 1.7% 6.4% 7.2% 9.6% Logistic: 1.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 2.5% 3.1% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 39 39 41 46 49 56 62 72 77 85 91 100 102 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 36 38 43 46 53 59 69 74 82 88 97 99 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 32 34 39 42 49 55 65 70 78 84 93 95 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 27 32 35 42 48 58 63 71 77 86 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT