* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 29 31 33 36 40 42 42 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 29 31 33 36 40 42 42 41 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 21 21 22 24 27 30 32 34 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 24 23 22 26 20 21 20 16 14 16 17 24 35 51 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 5 5 5 6 5 2 2 2 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 260 271 287 293 296 318 325 333 322 350 330 8 349 325 284 255 237 SST (C) 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.4 28.6 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 118 122 128 131 133 148 154 153 146 143 142 142 144 139 134 131 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 126 128 127 137 136 129 120 117 117 118 118 116 115 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -56.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 59 61 64 61 57 57 56 53 55 54 55 57 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 4 -16 -15 -26 -51 -77 -73 -75 -75 -68 -58 2 13 24 27 48 200 MB DIV 30 11 -7 -6 6 2 -11 12 3 5 -10 -3 21 2 46 89 74 700-850 TADV 5 -4 0 17 27 12 0 8 3 11 2 14 -2 11 13 47 59 LAND (KM) 2023 2025 2065 2021 1892 1719 1665 1601 1465 1436 1453 1541 1581 1561 1499 1376 1273 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.8 22.2 23.7 25.1 27.5 29.4 31.0 32.2 32.9 33.1 32.8 32.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.3 43.2 45.2 47.1 48.9 52.2 54.7 56.5 56.9 56.1 54.8 53.2 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 23 22 21 17 12 8 5 5 6 7 5 8 12 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 10 17 19 28 21 17 18 19 21 22 12 9 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 18 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -16. -19. -25. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 41.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.1% 5.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/24/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 29 31 33 36 40 42 42 41 40 38 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 28 28 30 32 35 39 41 41 40 39 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 37 37 36 35 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 18 18 20 22 25 29 31 31 30 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT