* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 47 49 51 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 47 49 51 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 24 26 29 33 37 41 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 22 23 22 24 19 21 16 16 7 13 12 17 9 14 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 0 4 6 6 2 4 -3 1 -2 -5 -6 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 263 261 275 289 297 309 325 327 327 339 349 2 2 337 275 232 251 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 27.1 27.3 28.3 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.8 25.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 121 130 132 144 153 154 147 145 142 138 136 132 127 112 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 121 129 128 136 138 133 122 120 119 117 116 116 115 101 83 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 57 55 60 59 54 56 55 54 53 58 58 50 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 33 0 -11 -12 -33 -60 -77 -61 -89 -84 -75 -20 35 35 35 40 200 MB DIV 42 36 13 -15 -9 -8 4 11 14 4 5 -10 36 39 61 38 23 700-850 TADV 4 3 -2 3 13 27 7 5 3 8 12 14 11 2 0 4 15 LAND (KM) 2039 2030 2027 2080 1983 1760 1675 1667 1496 1416 1416 1467 1487 1495 1505 1573 1742 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.8 21.1 22.6 24.1 26.6 28.8 30.5 31.8 32.8 33.4 33.5 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.6 43.7 45.7 47.6 51.1 53.9 56.1 57.1 56.7 55.0 52.7 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 23 22 19 14 10 6 6 9 10 12 17 24 25 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 6 12 22 26 21 16 18 18 14 11 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 21 CX,CY: -14/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 27. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.5 39.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/23/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 30 31 32 34 37 41 45 47 49 51 55 57 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 29 30 31 33 36 40 44 46 48 50 54 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 42 44 46 50 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 19 20 22 25 29 33 35 37 39 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT