* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 08/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 31 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 51 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 31 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 51 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 18 26 25 23 24 20 23 18 22 16 12 9 20 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 6 3 3 5 5 3 4 4 3 0 -2 -3 6 8 SHEAR DIR 325 291 275 284 292 306 315 324 338 322 348 348 20 338 236 206 168 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.4 27.1 27.4 28.6 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.9 26.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 120 122 130 133 148 155 152 143 143 144 146 144 139 128 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 120 122 129 128 139 139 130 119 117 120 124 125 125 117 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -55.7 -55.3 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 55 54 54 58 53 53 51 54 53 61 63 56 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 54 42 9 -12 -18 -25 -54 -52 -65 -59 -78 -36 33 97 122 146 200 MB DIV 42 46 39 0 -21 -3 7 4 -4 0 -12 -1 18 33 32 6 30 700-850 TADV -3 2 1 -3 0 32 19 -12 -2 0 6 6 9 2 3 -48 -69 LAND (KM) 2034 2020 1979 1964 2006 1801 1604 1526 1520 1425 1334 1331 1421 1507 1411 1255 1138 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 18.2 19.3 20.5 21.9 24.7 27.1 29.0 30.4 31.5 32.4 32.9 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.7 41.7 43.8 45.8 49.7 53.3 56.3 58.6 59.8 59.7 58.4 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 22 23 24 21 18 14 10 6 5 8 11 14 20 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 2 6 8 13 17 30 22 18 15 13 18 19 17 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 20 CX,CY: -14/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 38.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 08/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.6% 3.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 08/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 08/23/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 31 34 36 38 40 42 45 47 51 54 55 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 29 32 34 36 38 40 43 45 49 52 53 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 41 45 48 49 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 21 23 25 27 29 32 34 38 41 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT