* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 06/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 58 58 61 60 59 60 65 71 72 77 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 58 58 61 60 59 60 65 71 72 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 46 50 52 52 52 53 57 64 70 74 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 7 11 8 16 10 15 8 13 7 14 5 17 11 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 5 8 12 10 10 4 5 3 5 4 10 8 4 0 SHEAR DIR 13 25 36 347 4 330 323 308 317 314 294 279 306 315 319 338 343 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.8 27.7 28.0 27.7 28.0 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 133 136 133 139 137 141 137 139 154 154 160 156 158 150 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 133 136 133 139 137 141 137 137 150 146 151 143 145 135 126 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 74 72 71 68 65 67 71 67 63 60 59 62 65 65 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 21 22 23 24 23 21 21 19 16 14 15 17 15 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 86 86 77 75 74 62 60 48 34 23 21 1 -8 -17 -45 200 MB DIV 60 53 59 88 80 42 7 5 33 41 20 25 37 18 9 20 28 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -5 -2 1 7 0 0 21 18 3 -6 -5 -3 3 8 8 LAND (KM) 1242 1087 947 826 720 652 304 344 320 90 29 70 67 117 24 22 163 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.6 12.6 13.8 15.2 16.8 17.8 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 43.0 45.0 47.1 49.4 54.0 58.9 63.6 67.9 71.3 74.0 76.2 78.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 20 22 23 24 24 23 21 15 13 11 10 8 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 11 20 24 19 26 37 24 35 20 29 33 61 81 51 73 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 0. -4. -8. -12. -11. -10. -11. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 28. 31. 30. 29. 30. 35. 41. 42. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.1 41.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.1% 10.6% 8.7% 6.2% 10.5% 11.4% 15.6% Logistic: 6.2% 21.2% 11.5% 5.0% 2.6% 7.5% 4.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 13.7% 6.5% 0.6% 0.5% 2.7% 1.2% 3.0% Consensus: 4.3% 17.3% 9.5% 4.8% 3.1% 6.9% 5.8% 8.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 40.0% 23.0% 10.0% 3.0% 14.0% 12.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 48 55 58 58 61 60 59 60 65 71 72 64 62 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 43 50 53 53 56 55 54 55 60 66 67 59 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 42 45 45 48 47 46 47 52 58 59 51 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 34 34 37 36 35 36 41 47 48 40 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT