* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 06/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 54 60 63 64 63 63 69 73 78 81 84 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 54 60 63 64 63 61 67 70 74 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 31 35 39 43 45 46 46 45 50 56 62 47 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 3 2 11 12 10 14 11 12 9 13 8 14 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 5 6 7 9 10 5 7 0 7 -2 7 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 17 20 25 67 356 26 320 343 302 326 320 306 289 316 295 295 310 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 136 136 134 137 132 132 137 144 150 163 161 164 160 155 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 136 136 134 137 132 132 137 144 147 158 153 153 147 140 132 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -54.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 73 72 66 68 67 70 62 60 59 60 64 64 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 21 22 21 21 22 22 22 20 16 13 13 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 68 74 86 90 74 77 66 49 41 30 11 11 9 -9 0 -34 200 MB DIV 65 48 32 57 78 62 42 -19 9 36 28 15 10 41 26 26 11 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -11 -2 0 2 2 12 12 26 0 -4 -6 -2 -6 11 4 LAND (KM) 1280 1230 1083 940 820 644 555 272 379 194 37 53 22 77 33 11 100 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.8 11.7 13.2 14.7 16.4 17.8 18.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 41.1 42.9 44.8 46.8 51.2 55.7 60.5 65.0 69.1 72.0 74.7 77.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 21 22 24 24 23 18 14 12 12 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 11 22 22 33 26 21 28 42 25 35 40 86 50 78 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -4. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 23. 29. 35. 38. 39. 38. 38. 44. 49. 53. 56. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.6 39.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.9% 8.5% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 9.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.5% 2.3% 5.5% 5.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 10.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.3% 0.8% 1.3% Consensus: 2.4% 10.9% 4.9% 2.7% 0.3% 1.2% 5.5% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 7.0% 10.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/30/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 40 48 54 60 63 64 63 61 67 70 74 59 62 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 36 44 50 56 59 60 59 57 63 66 70 55 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 37 43 49 52 53 52 50 56 59 63 48 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 32 38 41 42 41 39 45 48 52 37 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT