* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 06/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 52 56 61 62 64 66 66 71 75 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 52 56 61 62 64 56 61 67 71 66 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 37 40 43 45 44 40 45 50 56 49 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 13 6 11 6 12 10 17 9 10 8 17 10 19 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 4 5 12 11 8 0 2 1 5 -1 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 31 29 28 31 9 1 346 317 284 309 315 295 283 307 309 329 339 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.9 27.1 27.7 28.0 28.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 134 135 136 132 140 130 137 141 143 157 158 165 159 154 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 134 135 136 132 140 130 137 141 143 155 153 158 149 143 129 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 77 74 68 65 66 67 64 58 56 57 60 64 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 18 20 20 21 20 20 21 20 18 15 11 12 13 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 69 72 80 81 64 65 45 35 26 18 6 -1 -14 -38 -39 200 MB DIV 62 63 51 34 48 43 40 17 12 35 37 20 3 21 28 21 24 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -9 -6 0 2 10 1 10 8 9 0 -3 -4 -8 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1253 1238 1209 1115 978 766 657 469 400 247 106 -8 67 67 56 17 247 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.2 10.2 11.4 12.8 14.3 15.7 17.3 18.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 39.0 40.6 42.3 44.0 48.0 52.4 57.2 62.0 66.5 70.2 73.4 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 17 18 22 23 25 24 22 17 15 13 13 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 7 10 17 18 35 30 49 27 22 30 34 73 51 76 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -5. -10. -9. -8. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 27. 31. 36. 37. 39. 41. 41. 46. 50. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.1 37.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 11.7% 7.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.5% 2.5% 5.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% Consensus: 1.8% 7.8% 4.0% 2.5% 0.2% 1.0% 5.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 06/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 35 39 46 52 56 61 62 64 56 61 67 71 66 68 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 36 43 49 53 58 59 61 53 58 64 68 63 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 36 42 46 51 52 54 46 51 57 61 56 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 32 36 41 42 44 36 41 47 51 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT