* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 06/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 72 73 77 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 70 71 71 75 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 48 54 58 59 60 61 54 64 65 69 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 16 13 7 12 12 7 12 8 8 12 18 13 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 2 6 10 12 4 4 2 2 -1 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 39 34 35 33 33 26 18 316 327 291 299 311 305 306 333 319 323 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.5 27.1 27.8 28.0 28.3 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 134 135 136 131 135 130 138 140 144 162 160 164 161 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 134 135 136 131 135 130 138 140 144 161 154 154 149 139 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 83 82 81 79 74 66 68 67 67 63 57 57 57 63 66 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 18 20 21 20 20 20 19 18 15 14 12 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 66 72 73 92 74 62 59 48 29 31 8 -4 -1 -18 -9 200 MB DIV 46 70 63 47 34 56 52 15 7 10 59 46 33 12 30 18 14 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -7 -5 2 0 0 7 0 12 0 8 -5 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1290 1253 1238 1205 1100 831 660 617 327 367 248 80 4 17 62 22 16 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 15.7 17.3 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.5 39.1 40.7 42.4 45.9 49.8 54.1 58.7 63.1 67.2 70.7 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 19 21 23 23 22 20 18 15 13 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 10 7 10 25 20 25 33 29 28 21 34 37 78 50 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -3. -7. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 29. 36. 40. 43. 42. 43. 45. 47. 48. 52. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 36.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.8% 8.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 14.8% 6.5% 2.2% 1.3% 6.2% 10.2% 10.2% Bayesian: 1.7% 15.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.3% 6.4% 3.2% 2.6% Consensus: 3.4% 14.6% 6.3% 3.3% 0.5% 4.2% 7.8% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972021 INVEST 06/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 39 45 54 61 65 68 67 68 70 70 71 71 75 61 18HR AGO 25 24 29 35 41 50 57 61 64 63 64 66 66 67 67 71 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 33 42 49 53 56 55 56 58 58 59 59 63 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 30 37 41 44 43 44 46 46 47 47 51 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT