* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972021 06/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 54 64 70 72 74 78 80 85 87 89 89 90 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 54 64 70 72 74 78 80 85 87 89 89 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 58 65 67 68 69 71 74 77 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 15 18 7 12 8 10 11 11 9 11 13 20 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -1 2 3 9 14 8 5 6 2 1 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 47 51 46 43 46 34 9 331 322 281 307 301 316 321 343 345 352 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.3 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.4 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 136 135 135 135 137 145 134 133 138 146 143 152 159 155 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 136 135 135 135 137 145 134 133 138 146 143 150 156 149 144 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 80 83 82 81 75 70 68 68 70 65 61 59 60 60 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 16 18 19 20 20 20 21 19 20 18 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 53 62 63 67 82 81 68 67 50 41 42 44 19 1 0 -10 200 MB DIV 14 40 66 52 34 37 40 56 30 26 44 48 24 4 10 26 29 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 1 3 3 6 14 3 15 11 8 -7 3 -9 LAND (KM) 1342 1275 1233 1218 1153 888 656 528 459 225 401 247 113 11 181 150 69 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.1 10.1 11.3 12.8 14.2 15.9 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.8 36.4 37.9 39.6 41.2 44.5 48.2 52.2 56.7 61.3 65.8 69.9 73.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 16 17 20 22 24 23 23 19 17 15 16 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 14 9 8 19 43 45 36 16 32 47 20 31 80 60 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 39. 45. 47. 49. 53. 55. 60. 62. 64. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.0 34.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972021 INVEST 06/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.7% 8.8% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 19.3% 10.0% 2.9% 1.6% 7.4% 13.7% 15.6% Bayesian: 2.2% 21.0% 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 5.7% 9.2% 15.8% Consensus: 4.4% 18.0% 8.0% 3.4% 0.6% 4.4% 11.0% 10.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972021 INVEST 06/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 44 54 64 70 72 74 78 80 85 87 89 89 89 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 39 49 59 65 67 69 73 75 80 82 84 84 84 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 42 52 58 60 62 66 68 73 75 77 77 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 31 41 47 49 51 55 57 62 64 66 66 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT