* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972019 10/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 34 36 36 32 29 24 19 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 33 37 42 47 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 13 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 222 213 218 231 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.2 27.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 158 132 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 140 147 121 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 62 56 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 16 20 18 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 69 97 124 119 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 93 86 68 60 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 18 12 20 39 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 282 310 281 115 -167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 17 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 32 25 20 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -3. -15. -25. -35. -45. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 95.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972019 INVEST 10/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972019 INVEST 10/25/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972019 INVEST 10/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 31 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 31 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT