* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 70 72 72 62 50 39 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 63 70 72 72 62 50 39 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 64 60 49 43 42 42 44 52 59 58 58 59 48 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 30 22 40 53 70 41 36 33 33 33 28 42 73 59 45 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 11 18 6 17 18 20 8 1 3 12 16 19 18 7 SHEAR DIR 205 177 201 223 221 204 209 209 222 229 229 234 247 266 326 347 7 SST (C) 20.2 16.7 13.3 9.4 8.6 6.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 2.8 6.0 6.5 5.8 7.5 10.3 4.1 4.6 POT. INT. (KT) 88 80 75 72 70 67 64 59 62 63 62 59 63 70 73 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 77 73 71 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 69 72 71 69 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.2 -57.8 -58.0 -58.3 -57.7 -55.7 -54.9 -53.7 -52.0 -50.5 -49.9 -53.2 -58.2 -59.8 -59.6 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.5 4.1 4.8 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 52 50 49 62 68 58 56 58 54 67 59 58 51 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 39 48 47 46 38 32 30 26 17 18 23 18 16 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 186 218 265 230 245 257 299 277 226 344 356 298 218 57 0 -19 100 200 MB DIV 88 75 51 26 85 2 -103 -102 -52 0 -34 -41 9 -22 -72 -91 -200 700-850 TADV 0 -23 -72 52 -10 28 -25 0 31 -43 -14 17 -15 2 -17 31 26 LAND (KM) 1085 1256 1417 1439 1411 1400 975 773 879 1101 1239 1254 1261 1257 243 -82 -177 LAT (DEG N) 42.4 45.2 49.4 53.6 57.1 62.0 65.3 65.9 64.9 65.4 66.7 67.2 65.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 36.8 33.6 31.9 31.7 34.6 40.3 44.4 42.8 37.4 33.4 32.8 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 36 43 45 39 31 23 16 5 9 12 8 3 12 32 56 46 33 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 33 CX,CY: 29/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. -29. -33. -36. -40. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -11. -17. -22. -25. -30. -35. -42. -56. -66. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 25. 28. 29. 27. 27. 26. 22. 15. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 8. 10. 10. 5. 0. -3. -9. -22. -22. -17. -24. -26. -27. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 10. 12. 12. 2. -10. -21. -30. -43. -45. -43. -55. -73. -88.-100.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 42.4 40.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/11/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 4( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 70 72 72 62 50 39 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 66 68 68 58 46 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 58 48 36 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT