* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 74 74 70 54 45 36 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 74 74 70 54 45 36 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 66 66 66 54 45 42 45 46 46 47 54 58 59 54 34 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 24 15 37 61 70 32 32 28 35 44 33 40 42 30 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 7 13 17 11 21 20 21 14 16 7 13 12 19 7 SHEAR DIR 213 206 209 183 224 223 213 206 191 208 228 231 231 256 276 316 307 SST (C) 21.6 21.4 17.2 13.8 9.8 8.4 5.3 0.3 3.6 3.1 0.6 3.1 6.5 7.4 10.2 4.0 4.0 POT. INT. (KT) 91 92 81 76 73 70 68 64 60 62 63 62 62 68 73 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 88 78 74 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 67 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.2 -57.4 -57.9 -58.3 -59.0 -57.6 -56.0 -54.6 -53.1 -51.5 -50.5 -49.8 -52.2 -54.1 -55.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.1 0.8 2.0 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.9 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.8 5.2 5.1 4.9 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 50 49 53 73 69 66 62 58 63 65 59 57 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 33 48 46 44 31 31 29 26 20 12 21 22 15 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR 153 195 246 262 206 149 229 290 303 303 224 257 249 118 110 25 4 200 MB DIV 95 114 125 86 31 91 -76 -133 -80 -21 -9 5 -15 -32 -22 45 -158 700-850 TADV -2 -31 62 -55 54 48 79 -14 10 15 5 0 -20 10 -22 -36 -60 LAND (KM) 1018 1145 1293 1442 1406 1395 1265 847 644 661 836 1133 1273 1414 588 235 -496 LAT (DEG N) 39.7 41.2 44.1 48.5 53.0 59.9 65.1 68.6 68.4 66.9 65.1 64.2 64.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 41.0 36.9 33.4 31.2 30.2 34.0 42.2 47.1 46.5 43.6 37.8 34.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 30 37 45 48 43 29 27 16 6 9 13 10 8 25 46 44 36 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 26 CX,CY: 24/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -25. -27. -30. -33. -38. -40. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -10. -17. -22. -23. -27. -34. -42. -51. -57. -59. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 26. 30. 31. 31. 29. 26. 21. 13. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 11. 11. 10. -1. -3. -6. -11. -20. -32. -20. -19. -27. -10. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 14. 14. 10. -6. -15. -24. -29. -40. -59. -54. -64. -83. -75. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 39.7 45.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 4( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 63 74 74 70 54 45 36 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 72 72 68 52 43 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 67 67 63 47 38 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 46 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT