* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 77 69 64 48 41 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 77 69 64 48 41 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 70 70 64 51 45 45 47 49 51 58 63 61 59 48 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 22 22 13 52 73 54 34 25 26 32 28 34 52 55 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 0 7 8 20 9 19 21 21 24 20 12 15 17 21 19 SHEAR DIR 223 215 205 212 164 228 216 213 201 202 214 219 224 238 253 298 301 SST (C) 23.6 23.4 21.0 19.1 15.1 9.8 7.5 2.5 1.4 4.0 3.4 2.3 1.8 2.5 7.6 9.8 4.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 101 91 85 77 72 69 67 62 59 60 61 63 65 71 73 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 87 81 75 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.0 -57.2 -57.8 -58.5 -59.2 -57.7 -56.5 -54.7 -52.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -53.7 -54.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.9 3.2 4.5 4.7 3.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 44 49 48 62 75 66 68 73 67 68 62 65 65 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 32 47 39 38 30 30 27 23 15 22 23 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 105 149 209 258 261 197 179 276 284 291 289 213 225 157 139 181 179 200 MB DIV 108 93 120 117 115 63 46 -116 -122 -55 -20 1 -18 -17 68 2 -141 700-850 TADV 15 8 -26 64 -66 95 127 48 -25 34 24 3 7 -10 -10 -34 7 LAND (KM) 1026 1061 1161 1310 1460 1288 1471 1084 732 619 646 691 770 1098 1428 505 -84 LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.9 40.4 43.2 47.6 56.4 62.3 67.0 68.8 68.2 67.4 66.4 64.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.9 45.6 41.6 37.2 33.3 29.8 30.7 36.8 45.1 47.6 46.8 46.0 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 31 38 47 51 36 28 24 11 4 4 7 12 20 35 48 43 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 21 CX,CY: 20/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -8. -16. -22. -23. -26. -31. -37. -45. -53. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 25. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. 24. 16. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 10. 5. 4. -5. -6. -11. -19. -30. -21. -20. -22. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 17. 9. 4. -12. -19. -27. -36. -53. -49. -56. -70. -84. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.0 48.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/11/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 6( 6) 3( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 66 77 69 64 48 41 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 74 66 61 45 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 69 61 56 40 33 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 61 53 48 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT