* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 59 59 61 77 64 47 35 34 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 59 59 61 77 64 47 35 34 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 58 64 66 51 41 40 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 26 24 23 23 57 52 31 43 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -2 3 6 7 5 4 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 220 199 190 201 201 195 198 177 185 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.8 21.7 21.5 17.1 9.0 7.3 8.1 10.2 9.8 6.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 102 92 93 81 70 62 68 72 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 93 87 89 77 68 61 66 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -57.2 -57.2 -57.0 -57.7 -54.9 -52.8 -53.5 -56.8 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 2.9 3.0 5.4 3.7 0.9 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 47 49 51 54 59 52 59 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 26 28 48 38 29 24 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 146 178 231 254 298 255 273 158 133 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 105 97 115 106 79 87 -12 50 12 -238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 13 1 -53 89 -111 -89 -114 -29 -103 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 914 930 1018 1137 1250 1078 1130 1189 730 748 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.8 39.9 41.8 45.2 53.1 56.1 54.2 54.1 61.0 70.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.5 50.0 46.4 42.3 38.4 36.6 39.9 38.8 28.2 17.2 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 26 33 40 44 28 8 23 37 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. -38. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -30. -36. -42. -50. -55. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 13. 15. 18. 21. 24. 24. 25. 24. 20. 13. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. 15. 9. -1. -9. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -1. 1. 17. 4. -13. -25. -26. -32. -36. -41. -51. -60. -68. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.9 52.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/11/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 59 59 61 77 64 47 35 34 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 62 78 65 48 36 35 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 74 61 44 32 31 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 68 55 38 26 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT