* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 47 48 48 69 68 51 35 30 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 47 48 48 69 68 51 35 30 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 44 41 40 42 55 56 43 40 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 35 22 22 20 56 59 24 38 56 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 5 2 -2 -9 1 5 11 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 234 221 201 189 206 196 200 182 172 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.7 23.9 21.9 20.5 12.5 7.7 9.1 12.2 11.1 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 100 103 94 89 74 64 68 73 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 91 95 88 85 72 62 66 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.8 -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -57.7 -56.3 -52.5 -53.8 -56.7 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 3.2 3.1 6.0 3.5 2.4 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 44 47 50 50 58 53 60 50 62 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 25 45 44 35 25 25 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 57 107 160 212 279 309 316 190 130 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 111 92 96 110 59 98 3 0 92 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -16 22 12 -37 -81 -117 -88 -18 -73 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1098 1015 960 970 1041 1171 1052 1007 1412 742 933 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.6 38.6 40.0 42.3 50.3 54.3 52.6 51.4 56.9 66.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.3 52.0 49.0 45.4 41.5 37.0 40.0 40.1 30.8 20.5 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 28 34 40 36 11 22 34 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -7. -13. -18. -25. -32. -38. -45. -54. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. 17. 10. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -4. 12. 15. 4. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -2. 19. 18. 1. -15. -20. -26. -29. -36. -47. -58. -68. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.8 54.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.09 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 11.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 47 48 48 69 68 51 35 30 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 50 71 70 53 37 32 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 68 67 50 34 29 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 61 60 43 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT