* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 64 63 63 63 75 58 46 32 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 64 63 63 63 75 58 46 32 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 65 63 62 68 69 54 45 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 39 35 24 23 26 62 49 30 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 3 0 -1 7 6 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 245 236 227 212 201 197 188 177 171 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.6 23.7 23.8 21.8 16.9 9.0 7.4 8.8 10.4 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 101 103 93 80 69 60 68 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 92 95 88 77 67 59 67 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.2 -56.7 -57.3 -57.6 -57.8 -58.6 -55.0 -52.6 -54.1 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.4 3.2 2.9 5.6 3.6 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 41 46 49 50 52 52 53 58 56 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 28 27 45 37 33 25 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 27 53 86 145 250 303 290 293 190 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 94 109 99 88 73 77 70 9 47 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -6 -15 4 32 87 -136 -136 -87 -27 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1142 1062 1004 1004 1153 1230 1052 1210 1106 897 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.4 37.2 38.3 39.8 45.6 53.1 55.3 53.5 54.8 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.3 54.2 51.7 48.6 45.1 38.0 36.9 40.1 37.4 27.0 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 24 29 33 43 25 4 24 38 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -38. -42. -45. -48. -50. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -15. -21. -23. -25. -29. -34. -39. -45. -49. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 22. 17. 10. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 17. 9. 3. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 5. -12. -24. -38. -44. -47. -52. -60. -67. -75. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.9 56.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/10/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 64 63 63 63 75 58 46 32 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 67 66 66 66 78 61 49 35 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 65 77 60 48 34 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 72 55 43 29 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT