* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 11/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 63 62 60 56 74 69 50 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 67 63 62 60 56 74 69 50 36 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 67 64 61 61 71 64 48 46 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 49 43 38 34 24 23 47 61 35 34 55 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 3 -2 -4 2 6 7 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 253 243 234 224 179 211 196 194 174 165 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.6 24.0 20.6 13.6 7.9 7.9 11.0 11.0 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 101 100 104 90 75 65 65 72 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 89 90 91 96 86 73 64 64 70 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.5 -56.3 -56.6 -57.2 -58.2 -58.2 -57.2 -52.5 -52.9 -56.3 -58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.1 2.6 2.9 4.7 4.3 2.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 36 40 44 49 52 59 52 61 51 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 28 27 24 44 44 35 27 26 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 2 30 59 98 210 282 319 318 225 140 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 60 89 118 83 111 84 81 21 -6 80 -213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -8 -2 -11 20 -25 -45 -116 -158 -19 -56 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1077 1109 1120 1058 1000 1053 1220 1137 1032 1473 823 1045 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 35.8 36.4 37.2 38.2 42.0 49.9 54.7 54.1 52.2 57.1 66.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 56.8 54.7 52.2 49.1 41.6 36.3 38.7 40.3 31.9 21.8 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 20 24 29 40 37 14 15 32 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -13. -20. -27. -33. -37. -41. -44. -47. -49. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -21. -26. -26. -30. -35. -40. -46. -50. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. 17. 10. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. 15. 16. 5. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -10. -14. 4. -1. -20. -34. -44. -52. -57. -64. -70. -76. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.4 58.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 11/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 11/10/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 67 63 62 60 56 74 69 50 36 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 65 64 62 58 76 71 52 38 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 63 59 77 72 53 39 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 54 72 67 48 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT