* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 55 59 55 59 53 38 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 50 55 59 55 59 53 38 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 45 44 45 43 36 32 29 29 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 31 31 40 38 41 49 44 15 30 44 20 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 3 6 5 2 -5 5 0 -3 13 5 2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 235 245 250 244 245 241 220 209 228 232 211 33 27 61 149 192 280 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 26.0 25.7 24.5 22.9 18.1 18.5 17.9 20.2 21.5 20.2 19.2 21.0 20.4 22.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 115 112 104 94 76 77 75 80 84 78 73 83 79 86 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 98 95 90 84 71 71 69 71 73 68 64 73 70 75 81 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.9 -54.8 -54.3 -55.5 -56.5 -56.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.1 2.9 0.6 0.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 59 59 59 58 61 58 41 31 25 29 42 52 48 36 34 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 20 24 30 35 34 40 36 28 20 16 18 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -45 -31 6 14 79 136 174 180 148 97 105 94 13 -105 -96 5 200 MB DIV 84 65 75 73 96 55 36 47 34 69 21 18 -3 -6 -5 -29 -25 700-850 TADV 13 15 20 15 18 19 -24 -23 -26 -38 -11 49 59 33 1 -11 -6 LAND (KM) 345 405 365 351 395 368 382 282 485 714 897 989 1018 875 677 727 1032 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 14 17 19 17 16 14 11 8 6 2 12 8 9 18 HEAT CONTENT 83 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -8. -17. -25. -30. -33. -41. -48. -49. -48. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 20. 28. 23. 11. -0. -6. -4. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 24. 20. 24. 18. 3. -20. -36. -38. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.6 71.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 5.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/17/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 46 50 55 59 55 59 53 38 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 42 46 51 55 51 55 49 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 45 49 45 49 43 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 36 40 36 40 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT