* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 45 52 56 58 55 50 57 48 32 25 20 16 16 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 45 52 56 58 55 50 57 48 32 25 20 16 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 34 37 40 40 38 40 44 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 26 25 28 35 40 31 32 33 22 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 5 0 3 6 3 -1 -2 -3 2 9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 234 242 245 243 246 230 220 224 258 274 26 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 26.7 25.8 24.6 20.9 17.9 18.4 18.1 21.0 22.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 123 114 105 85 75 75 74 81 85 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 122 105 98 91 76 69 69 68 71 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -54.5 -56.2 -58.0 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 61 60 61 58 56 39 28 21 22 29 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 21 25 28 31 30 27 34 30 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -7 -28 -15 15 47 124 156 145 78 -18 -106 -155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 79 54 80 81 73 85 38 -1 18 13 12 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 15 26 13 14 2 -27 -40 -57 -62 -49 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 175 256 325 376 354 373 336 392 289 422 652 722 628 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 16 18 17 14 12 11 7 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 49 60 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 3. -4. -10. -16. -21. -24. -29. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 18. 15. 24. 17. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 22. 26. 28. 25. 20. 27. 18. 2. -5. -10. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.8 74.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 12.2% 8.1% 7.0% 4.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 3.0% 2.4% 1.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/17/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 40 45 52 56 58 55 50 57 48 32 25 20 16 16 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 42 49 53 55 52 47 54 45 29 22 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 43 47 49 46 41 48 39 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 36 38 35 30 37 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT