* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 62 56 49 46 45 40 36 32 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 62 56 49 46 45 40 36 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 39 42 45 43 39 39 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 23 24 22 30 37 45 25 22 13 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 6 0 7 5 0 -4 -6 -4 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 236 226 241 240 245 236 222 222 248 230 232 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.8 25.7 24.5 21.9 18.9 18.3 23.1 24.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 144 136 113 104 87 75 73 90 94 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 121 122 115 98 91 77 67 67 76 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 66 64 62 58 57 46 28 26 29 35 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 15 16 19 23 27 32 33 29 24 22 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -4 -16 -12 35 100 146 150 75 36 17 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 68 56 82 91 80 67 7 -14 -25 25 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 10 11 18 14 11 -19 -14 -24 -9 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 147 184 304 360 336 337 350 387 434 533 591 579 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 15 17 18 13 7 7 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 60 51 43 80 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -3. -10. -14. -17. -18. -19. -24. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 23. 17. 10. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 21. 27. 32. 32. 26. 19. 16. 15. 10. 6. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.0 75.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.3% 8.5% 7.4% 5.3% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.4% 3.4% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/17/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 62 56 49 46 45 40 36 32 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 49 55 60 60 54 47 44 43 38 34 30 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 43 49 54 54 48 41 38 37 32 28 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 39 44 44 38 31 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT