* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 36 39 44 48 54 54 48 43 38 37 32 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 36 39 44 48 54 54 48 43 38 37 32 28 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 40 37 36 38 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 22 24 29 28 33 45 40 32 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 5 3 3 7 4 -2 -8 -4 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 253 242 236 244 238 242 232 230 210 224 222 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.3 25.3 23.6 22.5 21.0 18.7 19.1 22.3 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 143 143 142 109 98 91 82 74 74 86 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 123 120 121 118 94 86 80 72 66 67 73 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -55.4 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 67 64 63 60 60 41 33 29 34 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 14 16 18 20 26 29 26 24 21 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -14 -14 -10 -26 24 51 138 143 96 32 29 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 22 44 55 56 86 89 91 18 -3 -32 33 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 9 9 11 5 21 13 -5 -30 -6 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 150 132 234 294 330 369 305 283 373 479 589 711 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 12 14 17 15 9 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 63 39 53 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -3. -11. -16. -21. -24. -27. -33. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 19. 15. 11. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 24. 24. 18. 13. 8. 7. 2. -2. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.5 75.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.2% 8.0% 7.2% 5.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.8% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/17/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 36 39 44 48 54 54 48 43 38 37 32 28 24 23 18HR AGO 30 29 30 34 37 42 46 52 52 46 41 36 35 30 26 22 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 38 42 48 48 42 37 32 31 26 22 18 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 32 38 38 32 27 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT