* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 57 62 59 51 44 39 33 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 57 62 59 51 44 39 33 28 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 35 39 43 45 43 37 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 23 25 27 29 29 39 46 34 23 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 1 0 6 1 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 250 246 242 234 252 243 237 223 198 203 224 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 26.1 25.6 24.3 22.1 21.9 19.1 21.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 143 142 116 111 102 88 86 74 81 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 121 121 119 98 95 88 78 74 67 71 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 66 63 59 61 51 38 37 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 13 14 17 22 28 34 34 30 26 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 9 -11 -16 -16 -26 29 94 141 162 96 60 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 54 22 44 56 59 77 97 49 26 12 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 2 7 9 9 15 19 15 -10 -11 -7 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 199 167 188 275 340 323 319 380 435 479 513 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 12 12 14 15 13 9 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 47 53 47 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -3. -10. -17. -23. -26. -28. -34. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 24. 24. 19. 12. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 27. 32. 29. 21. 14. 9. 3. -2. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.6 75.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 9.5% 6.6% 6.0% 4.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/16/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 42 49 57 62 59 51 44 39 33 28 24 23 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 40 47 55 60 57 49 42 37 31 26 22 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 43 51 56 53 45 38 33 27 22 18 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 43 48 45 37 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT