* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 41 48 50 55 54 50 39 31 26 27 27 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 41 48 50 55 54 50 39 31 26 27 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 43 43 39 35 34 36 40 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 25 26 31 31 32 45 47 39 27 15 13 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 1 3 2 5 1 0 -6 -2 -3 -6 -2 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 309 272 253 250 245 251 245 242 228 217 203 201 198 227 251 253 242 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 25.8 24.6 24.7 22.5 17.0 18.7 22.5 23.9 22.5 23.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 134 135 136 139 113 103 104 90 71 73 87 95 86 90 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 114 114 114 117 96 88 89 78 65 66 74 78 73 74 84 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.7 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.7 2.6 1.9 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 73 71 65 62 60 64 48 36 35 34 39 44 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 15 20 22 28 31 31 26 22 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -18 6 5 -22 -28 -32 12 51 113 149 105 47 34 28 18 14 35 200 MB DIV 25 54 60 30 42 64 68 95 105 42 26 6 -13 9 -22 9 17 700-850 TADV 14 13 2 9 7 18 10 17 -7 -5 -16 4 2 -6 -7 0 1 LAND (KM) 407 332 278 251 274 387 341 370 428 398 381 382 533 579 533 548 651 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 14 12 8 6 6 4 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 26 37 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -9. -17. -25. -30. -33. -36. -37. -35. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 8. 16. 20. 20. 12. 5. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 18. 20. 25. 24. 20. 9. 1. -4. -3. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 74.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 6.8% 5.3% 4.9% 3.2% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.0% 2.7% 1.9% 1.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/16/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 36 41 48 50 55 54 50 39 31 26 27 27 31 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 34 39 46 48 53 52 48 37 29 24 25 25 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 35 42 44 49 48 44 33 25 20 21 21 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 35 37 42 41 37 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT