* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 52 50 46 43 36 30 29 30 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 52 50 46 43 36 30 29 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 34 38 41 43 43 42 39 38 39 43 49 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 11 19 25 22 27 26 37 56 37 32 21 14 11 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 5 1 5 1 -3 -3 -4 -4 -1 -5 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 322 316 269 251 255 242 248 241 242 230 203 195 201 191 268 264 295 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 27.4 26.4 25.0 25.1 22.1 23.2 23.2 25.5 25.1 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 139 135 134 137 129 118 107 108 89 93 92 109 105 120 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 119 115 113 114 108 99 92 93 78 79 78 89 87 99 103 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.9 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 4 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 700-500 MB RH 66 70 75 75 74 69 64 59 54 47 38 39 42 44 52 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 16 19 22 24 25 25 25 22 20 19 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -15 8 8 -19 -17 -20 29 84 134 129 76 70 64 63 80 75 200 MB DIV -2 20 53 56 28 58 74 77 64 45 41 20 19 24 13 29 -12 700-850 TADV 7 12 11 7 11 16 12 15 -2 -10 -22 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 533 423 313 264 234 322 388 392 418 452 519 489 554 700 880 1047 1215 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 15 16 15 10 8 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 34 24 30 64 16 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -13. -20. -26. -30. -34. -35. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 5. 10. 11. 13. 12. 11. 7. 2. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 22. 20. 16. 13. 6. -0. -1. 0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 74.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.7% 7.4% 7.1% 4.9% 7.7% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.5% 3.0% 2.5% 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 52 50 46 43 36 30 29 30 33 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 50 48 44 41 34 28 27 28 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 41 46 46 44 40 37 30 24 23 24 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 38 38 36 32 29 22 16 15 16 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT