* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 43 47 49 48 48 43 33 24 20 21 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 40 43 47 49 48 48 43 33 24 20 21 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 38 41 42 44 42 39 38 40 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 15 12 18 23 25 27 31 36 40 34 38 45 28 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 0 -2 1 5 2 3 3 3 -2 -4 -7 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 312 327 317 271 247 250 244 247 243 236 240 220 234 232 222 243 268 SST (C) 29.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.4 26.1 24.3 24.9 22.3 20.0 16.1 20.6 25.0 26.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 139 138 137 134 133 142 115 101 107 91 82 71 81 107 117 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 121 119 116 114 112 117 97 87 93 81 75 66 72 91 97 107 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.8 -56.5 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 700-500 MB RH 64 66 71 74 75 72 65 64 60 61 60 59 56 55 54 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 19 22 21 17 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -25 -13 5 9 -21 -24 12 41 75 100 80 64 48 31 16 5 200 MB DIV -3 5 28 48 40 34 56 57 50 47 -1 50 44 38 19 18 -6 700-850 TADV 1 9 11 15 4 8 12 4 10 5 11 -16 -1 -17 -9 -1 0 LAND (KM) 638 523 398 319 262 301 398 381 420 424 463 349 447 653 873 1103 1272 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 11 14 18 19 19 12 11 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 22 27 27 24 32 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -15. -20. -27. -36. -41. -40. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 10. 7. 1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 13. 18. 19. 18. 18. 13. 3. -6. -10. -9. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 74.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.6% 7.4% 6.9% 4.8% 7.6% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 3.2% 2.5% 1.6% 2.7% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 40 43 47 49 48 48 43 33 24 20 21 26 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 38 41 45 47 46 46 41 31 22 18 19 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 34 37 41 43 42 42 37 27 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 29 33 35 34 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT