* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 48 51 53 53 54 51 38 33 29 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 42 48 51 53 53 54 51 38 33 29 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 39 42 44 45 46 47 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 15 16 28 29 32 30 34 37 30 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 -2 -2 -1 2 -4 2 -3 6 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 307 306 282 262 246 236 247 240 246 234 224 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.3 25.4 24.0 23.9 21.0 17.8 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 143 136 137 136 136 128 109 100 99 85 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 126 118 117 116 116 106 93 87 86 76 71 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 5 4 3 4 2 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 68 72 75 69 64 59 56 61 60 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 15 17 19 21 25 26 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -23 -21 4 -29 -27 -37 5 51 89 111 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 8 11 39 54 24 48 47 68 39 46 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 9 15 17 6 13 9 9 3 19 -8 -130 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 715 612 479 380 295 265 339 310 356 346 354 267 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 10 12 13 11 13 16 15 16 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 30 20 24 24 36 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 17. 16. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 21. 8. 3. -1. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.7 73.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.7% 6.9% 6.5% 4.4% 7.1% 6.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.4% 3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 2.6% 2.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/15/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 42 48 51 53 53 54 51 38 33 29 27 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 39 45 48 50 50 51 48 35 30 26 24 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 40 43 45 45 46 43 30 25 21 19 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 32 35 37 37 38 35 22 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT