* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 58 61 63 66 63 54 40 29 29 37 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 58 61 63 66 63 54 40 29 29 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 47 53 56 58 62 60 51 41 36 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 8 10 15 18 24 25 26 32 41 40 34 29 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 0 -4 -1 1 2 1 7 6 4 0 -5 -3 -3 -11 SHEAR DIR 260 306 282 297 269 241 243 235 238 253 252 248 254 251 273 299 343 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 26.8 26.1 27.2 24.0 23.3 24.7 23.8 22.9 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 143 136 137 134 134 140 123 117 130 102 97 104 97 93 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 124 117 118 114 112 116 103 100 113 92 85 88 83 81 79 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -55.5 -56.3 -57.3 -58.5 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 69 73 73 68 63 61 60 64 58 52 49 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 17 21 21 18 11 4 4 10 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -17 -26 -19 -12 11 -22 -28 17 38 75 113 57 -16 -51 -45 -71 200 MB DIV 18 19 17 13 45 49 45 45 56 62 55 -32 30 6 -5 -2 -37 700-850 TADV 6 9 5 10 8 8 13 12 3 21 26 27 19 -4 3 8 13 LAND (KM) 753 711 606 484 382 304 365 422 415 490 605 633 731 978 1162 1397 1730 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.0 32.1 34.2 36.1 37.6 38.6 39.3 40.0 41.0 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.2 73.6 73.9 73.9 72.9 71.7 69.8 67.2 63.7 59.0 53.1 47.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 13 16 21 23 19 13 11 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 33 42 30 21 24 23 46 37 3 1 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 11. 11. 6. -4. -13. -13. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 36. 33. 24. 10. -1. -1. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.8 72.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.4% 7.9% 7.2% 5.1% 8.6% 8.9% 9.9% Logistic: 1.1% 5.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 58 61 63 66 63 54 40 29 29 37 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 49 55 58 60 63 60 51 37 26 26 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 43 49 52 54 57 54 45 31 20 20 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 35 41 44 46 49 46 37 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT