* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 48 57 60 64 66 69 68 64 61 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 48 57 60 64 66 69 68 64 61 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 48 54 60 63 66 63 56 53 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 5 5 7 4 12 15 21 24 27 31 22 11 6 7 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 3 -1 2 0 2 -1 -2 -2 -5 3 SHEAR DIR 224 262 312 323 339 238 260 238 247 254 246 241 232 212 182 132 199 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 28.1 26.8 26.9 25.7 25.1 24.4 24.4 22.7 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 159 157 140 137 135 133 139 123 126 115 109 103 101 93 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 139 138 122 118 114 111 116 104 107 101 95 88 86 81 74 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.5 -55.3 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -55.8 -56.5 -56.7 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 67 72 72 68 65 63 66 60 52 47 43 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 15 17 21 22 19 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -15 -19 -19 -2 -21 -17 -27 6 51 80 90 42 -4 8 80 200 MB DIV 5 18 21 0 -2 39 33 53 39 55 63 23 6 15 -3 62 27 700-850 TADV 6 7 8 6 4 18 7 16 16 21 12 20 5 8 4 -5 -95 LAND (KM) 703 729 690 679 568 388 346 460 476 523 532 638 630 743 906 1070 1384 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.2 28.1 29.1 30.2 32.5 34.5 36.3 37.6 38.7 39.7 40.5 41.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.7 73.2 73.6 73.8 73.3 72.2 70.6 68.3 65.2 61.6 56.7 51.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 14 17 21 20 15 12 17 29 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 41 44 25 20 22 32 26 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 7. 8. 13. 13. 8. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 32. 35. 39. 41. 44. 43. 39. 36. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.4 72.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.9% 8.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.6% 8.5% 1.9% 0.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 8.6% 5.7% 3.2% 0.1% 0.7% 4.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 41 48 57 60 64 66 69 68 64 61 61 62 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 45 54 57 61 63 66 65 61 58 58 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 39 48 51 55 57 60 59 55 52 52 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 39 42 46 48 51 50 46 43 43 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT