* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 53 60 62 62 59 61 53 41 33 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 45 53 60 62 62 59 61 53 41 33 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 45 51 55 56 56 55 49 43 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 7 8 10 13 21 26 29 31 40 48 41 37 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 3 0 1 4 2 0 -2 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 210 241 273 313 317 318 249 248 246 247 245 230 240 253 280 271 287 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.7 24.6 24.4 22.3 17.0 14.3 17.9 15.5 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 159 157 154 137 137 132 133 103 102 91 75 71 80 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 140 140 136 120 117 111 111 88 88 81 70 68 75 75 75 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 66 66 72 73 71 65 64 68 67 52 46 49 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 15 19 19 15 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -25 -18 -26 -27 -4 -22 -32 6 27 86 47 23 -2 -53 -67 200 MB DIV 33 5 12 16 -9 37 55 53 50 74 74 63 41 6 27 45 20 700-850 TADV 2 6 9 11 2 12 14 11 11 8 19 18 33 55 15 -15 20 LAND (KM) 633 703 751 746 706 462 397 501 446 445 397 381 233 361 822 1441 571 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.2 27.0 28.0 29.2 31.8 34.3 36.4 38.0 39.5 40.9 42.6 44.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.1 71.6 72.2 72.6 72.9 73.0 71.7 70.0 67.9 65.3 62.2 58.1 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 13 12 12 13 15 19 19 21 31 42 38 HEAT CONTENT 51 36 31 39 39 17 24 24 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -4. -10. -18. -27. -34. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 12. 10. 4. 0. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 28. 35. 37. 37. 34. 36. 28. 16. 8. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.5 71.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.5% 9.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 20.4% 12.9% 5.5% 1.8% 8.4% 8.3% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 11.8% 7.5% 4.7% 0.6% 2.8% 6.0% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/15/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/15/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 35 38 45 53 60 62 62 59 61 53 41 33 26 24 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 41 49 56 58 58 55 57 49 37 29 22 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 49 51 51 48 50 42 30 22 15 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 40 42 42 39 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT