* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 44 50 57 58 59 62 63 49 43 38 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 44 50 57 58 59 62 63 49 43 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 26 29 33 38 42 45 49 52 46 42 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 12 12 11 13 8 21 23 24 26 31 43 33 30 35 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 5 -1 1 1 2 -2 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 201 214 241 287 320 319 250 242 244 240 241 244 235 240 237 247 245 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 27.9 28.0 27.7 28.1 26.1 24.3 24.5 23.0 21.8 16.9 22.0 18.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 158 157 157 136 138 133 138 115 101 104 95 88 74 92 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 143 139 139 139 118 118 111 113 96 86 90 84 79 69 83 77 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.5 -56.1 -56.5 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 3 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 64 70 75 72 68 63 61 66 52 44 51 61 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 12 12 14 16 20 13 11 9 13 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -19 -23 -22 -32 -4 -29 -23 -39 17 84 113 80 50 44 44 200 MB DIV 44 22 0 0 8 15 69 52 48 35 67 47 65 24 36 46 96 700-850 TADV 7 2 5 6 6 4 11 6 17 11 17 17 21 22 -12 -24 -13 LAND (KM) 611 711 761 762 727 489 337 337 422 378 379 369 434 433 507 809 1294 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.8 31.1 33.5 35.6 37.2 38.4 39.7 40.8 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.0 71.3 71.8 72.4 73.0 73.6 73.1 72.0 70.5 68.8 66.3 62.9 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 11 12 12 12 11 9 10 12 17 19 17 18 25 34 HEAT CONTENT 56 37 31 35 42 20 23 34 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -27. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 8. 10. 14. 4. 1. -2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 24. 30. 37. 38. 39. 42. 43. 29. 23. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.3 71.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.6% 4.8% 1.3% 0.4% 2.2% 4.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/14/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/14/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 26 29 35 44 50 57 58 59 62 63 49 43 38 38 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 33 42 48 55 56 57 60 61 47 41 36 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 28 37 43 50 51 52 55 56 42 36 31 31 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT