* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962021 09/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 36 44 54 61 64 67 66 68 67 61 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 36 44 54 61 64 67 66 68 67 61 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 43 50 56 58 57 53 47 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 3 5 2 3 6 12 17 27 25 20 26 20 11 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 0 1 1 0 -1 5 0 -1 -2 2 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 308 179 176 239 12 332 327 230 255 256 258 258 237 249 226 218 80 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.9 25.2 23.1 20.9 18.9 20.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 165 162 159 139 139 136 131 136 108 94 82 72 80 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 146 145 144 141 122 119 116 110 114 92 82 72 65 70 75 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -55.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.5 2.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 68 67 67 69 72 71 65 66 62 59 43 42 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 6 6 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 15 17 19 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -19 -15 -17 -28 -16 -36 -20 -25 -40 -10 3 82 93 92 37 -36 200 MB DIV 18 47 33 16 18 -6 9 59 57 34 24 59 52 21 -13 -61 -9 700-850 TADV 6 7 3 7 7 5 9 14 11 16 12 20 14 12 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 411 474 524 567 629 700 575 456 451 571 500 425 347 315 405 433 353 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.2 26.0 28.1 30.4 32.7 34.7 36.5 38.0 39.8 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.8 72.1 72.4 72.7 73.1 73.2 72.2 70.9 68.8 66.6 64.2 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 11 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 10 3 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 72 75 59 38 41 21 21 31 20 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -4. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. 8. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 24. 34. 41. 44. 47. 46. 48. 47. 41. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 23.5 71.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962021 INVEST 09/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 21.7% 13.3% 4.0% 1.2% 5.9% 6.8% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 7.3% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4% 2.0% 2.3% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962021 INVEST 09/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962021 INVEST 09/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 29 36 44 54 61 64 67 66 68 67 61 58 59 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 27 34 42 52 59 62 65 64 66 65 59 56 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 30 38 48 55 58 61 60 62 61 55 52 53 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT