* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/31/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 54 64 74 81 85 89 95 105 107 108 109 108 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 42 54 64 74 81 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 55 64 50 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 9 10 7 10 10 15 11 7 2 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -4 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 231 206 221 227 172 180 155 127 98 144 137 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 159 157 156 158 163 165 160 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 155 155 153 154 150 147 149 154 157 152 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 5 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 78 78 79 80 84 82 78 71 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 13 15 17 20 21 23 26 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 55 73 83 89 107 122 121 125 149 169 194 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 40 38 46 54 107 111 152 131 85 73 79 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 0 -4 0 2 0 0 -1 -4 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 287 289 271 237 267 252 110 32 -31 -131 -178 -163 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 14 13 10 7 5 5 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 48 63 89 79 56 50 41 42 38 7 19 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 17. 21. 28. 25. 24. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 29. 39. 49. 56. 60. 64. 70. 80. 82. 83. 84. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 70.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 29.3% 17.5% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 61.0% 42.0% 29.4% 23.9% 48.4% 64.1% 75.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 41.5% 13.6% 3.7% 3.9% 18.5% 15.4% 46.4% Consensus: 10.4% 44.0% 24.4% 15.1% 9.3% 22.3% 31.3% 40.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/31/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 33 37 42 54 64 74 81 58 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 29 33 38 50 60 70 77 54 34 26 24 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 42 52 62 69 46 26 18 16 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 42 52 59 36 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT