* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/31/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 44 56 70 78 86 93 100 106 107 108 109 108 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 44 56 70 78 86 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 57 65 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 9 8 6 11 15 13 7 9 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -3 -5 -7 -6 -6 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 266 218 203 213 161 162 152 144 106 129 79 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 158 156 162 158 159 158 159 164 162 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 156 158 156 158 150 151 148 148 155 154 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 77 79 80 81 82 80 74 73 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 9 12 15 18 20 22 26 29 32 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 56 73 82 89 107 124 139 149 169 176 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 27 35 45 55 73 119 173 151 117 82 97 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 0 -2 0 0 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 267 257 312 310 270 259 311 198 87 8 -70 -162 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 13 10 8 7 5 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 57 54 77 84 68 57 48 44 46 38 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 26. 24. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 19. 31. 45. 53. 61. 68. 75. 81. 82. 83. 84. 83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 70.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.8% 12.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 25.1% 10.4% 4.9% 3.4% 21.8% 51.4% 69.6% Bayesian: 1.8% 7.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 6.1% 15.6% 62.6% Consensus: 3.0% 16.3% 7.8% 4.6% 1.2% 9.3% 26.6% 44.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/31/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 35 44 56 70 78 86 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 33 42 54 68 76 84 51 33 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 36 48 62 70 78 45 27 21 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 40 54 62 70 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT