* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/31/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 44 57 70 80 88 91 95 95 97 99 101 100 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 44 57 70 80 74 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 53 65 64 45 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 3 8 3 10 10 16 13 12 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -7 -5 -3 -2 -5 -4 -6 -4 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 271 248 171 188 174 153 143 155 113 100 98 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 157 156 156 161 159 158 159 159 161 165 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 157 156 156 157 152 152 152 147 149 159 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 74 77 76 77 80 82 82 81 74 73 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 11 13 16 20 24 25 26 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 45 59 74 88 99 118 137 145 156 171 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 27 40 43 57 38 102 137 166 128 116 77 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 0 2 -3 -2 1 3 2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 262 247 319 345 269 311 274 62 -8 -48 -139 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 11 8 9 7 3 3 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 64 54 59 79 76 59 52 46 45 37 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 20. 21. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 19. 32. 45. 55. 63. 66. 70. 70. 72. 74. 76. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 68.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.92 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.93 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.9% 13.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 19.7% 8.6% 3.1% 1.4% 11.7% 40.9% 62.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 3.7% 7.2% 31.2% Consensus: 2.8% 14.8% 7.6% 4.4% 0.5% 5.1% 20.6% 31.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/31/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/31/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 44 57 70 80 74 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 42 55 68 78 72 48 33 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 37 50 63 73 67 43 28 22 21 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 40 53 63 57 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT