* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 56 70 79 90 96 100 98 96 97 100 100 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 35 43 56 70 79 76 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 51 62 64 43 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 4 4 8 6 12 13 13 12 12 21 15 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -4 -6 -4 -5 -4 -4 -7 -6 -6 -6 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 256 229 240 162 193 137 132 133 128 87 87 71 63 44 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 156 156 156 163 158 159 160 168 166 165 166 166 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 159 158 156 156 156 161 153 152 151 161 160 158 155 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 74 74 73 77 77 80 77 76 75 75 74 80 82 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 8 10 14 17 19 25 27 28 25 20 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 38 43 44 59 82 89 109 124 136 149 166 178 186 186 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 15 24 30 36 63 64 103 138 133 111 78 60 38 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -5 -8 -5 0 -1 -4 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 -7 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 346 289 277 245 292 316 296 293 126 -11 -92 -195 -89 -43 -44 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 61 55 65 56 57 80 66 52 44 44 18 13 25 22 23 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 21. 23. 24. 18. 10. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 18. 31. 45. 54. 65. 71. 75. 73. 71. 72. 75. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 67.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.94 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.6% 13.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 32.3% 17.6% 11.6% 7.6% 36.7% 54.1% 75.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 11.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 6.7% 6.2% 52.0% Consensus: 4.0% 20.7% 11.1% 7.3% 2.6% 14.5% 24.5% 42.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 35 43 56 70 79 76 48 34 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 33 41 54 68 77 74 46 32 27 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 28 36 49 63 72 69 41 27 22 21 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 41 55 64 61 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT