* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 59 69 79 84 87 84 80 78 79 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 59 69 79 84 87 84 54 36 30 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 48 58 68 76 78 73 49 34 29 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 7 5 6 11 12 18 16 16 19 19 25 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -5 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 281 299 265 264 276 186 197 166 167 184 156 114 98 85 102 92 81 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 158 156 158 156 157 160 158 160 161 169 164 159 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 155 158 156 158 156 154 154 151 154 157 165 158 152 140 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 66 68 69 71 71 74 76 75 77 79 82 83 86 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 9 13 15 18 20 23 20 16 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 26 34 46 63 82 98 117 109 128 134 130 133 134 148 144 200 MB DIV 10 5 19 25 26 31 36 73 97 148 108 79 87 100 67 62 80 700-850 TADV 0 2 -6 -9 -4 3 2 0 1 3 3 2 3 1 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 289 337 367 328 274 221 345 244 199 295 164 11 -76 -141 -32 6 -8 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.1 15.3 14.2 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.8 64.9 66.0 67.2 68.5 71.1 73.8 76.2 78.3 80.0 81.7 83.1 84.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 58 62 53 59 63 83 60 61 45 38 30 36 19 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 15. 8. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 34. 44. 54. 59. 62. 59. 55. 53. 54. 57. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 63.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.8% 14.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 37.3% 26.9% 19.7% 9.6% 37.0% 49.6% 78.9% Bayesian: 2.6% 31.1% 15.2% 1.8% 1.1% 17.8% 11.2% 64.1% Consensus: 6.4% 29.4% 18.7% 10.7% 3.6% 18.3% 24.9% 47.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 39 48 59 69 79 84 87 84 54 36 30 32 29 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 35 44 55 65 75 80 83 80 50 32 26 28 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 38 49 59 69 74 77 74 44 26 20 22 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 40 50 60 65 68 65 35 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT