* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 52 65 73 79 86 84 82 79 80 82 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 42 52 65 73 79 86 84 67 42 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 43 51 61 70 75 74 59 39 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 9 9 3 7 9 12 16 16 13 18 18 23 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 269 282 297 266 266 297 193 175 163 168 175 134 100 78 100 93 95 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 154 157 159 158 156 156 162 158 160 159 163 167 163 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 151 153 157 159 158 156 154 158 151 154 154 159 162 156 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 9 7 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 63 65 67 70 70 73 75 77 75 77 80 85 83 86 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 8 11 14 16 19 22 20 17 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 17 22 30 52 75 87 109 106 125 119 128 124 122 128 145 200 MB DIV 26 8 5 13 25 35 40 55 94 123 124 98 73 83 88 55 68 700-850 TADV 5 0 1 -6 -9 0 1 0 0 3 4 2 3 0 5 1 5 LAND (KM) 278 322 369 400 351 267 292 269 196 262 211 54 -22 -103 -93 -39 -39 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.2 15.5 14.4 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.7 63.8 64.9 66.1 67.3 70.0 72.8 75.4 77.7 79.6 81.3 82.7 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 59 47 46 58 59 64 55 86 67 60 48 42 42 30 25 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 2. 4. 9. 11. 14. 19. 15. 10. 4. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 17. 27. 40. 49. 54. 61. 59. 57. 54. 55. 57. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 62.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.8% 12.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 25.3% 16.6% 15.7% 7.4% 27.3% 37.2% 74.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 5.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 4.0% 28.3% 55.2% Consensus: 3.9% 16.0% 10.2% 8.5% 2.5% 10.4% 26.0% 43.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 42 52 65 73 79 86 84 67 42 32 29 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 39 49 62 70 76 83 81 64 39 29 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 44 57 65 71 78 76 59 34 24 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 35 48 56 62 69 67 50 25 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT