* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 90 95 97 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 29 34 42 49 57 61 62 63 45 36 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 3 4 1 6 6 11 11 20 15 16 16 18 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -6 -3 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 293 262 281 318 281 18 168 188 164 170 171 174 129 99 80 78 108 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 150 150 154 156 160 158 156 158 165 166 162 165 166 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 149 148 152 155 160 158 153 152 157 160 157 161 161 152 155 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 7 8 6 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 68 70 73 72 72 70 73 77 75 78 79 80 81 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 6 6 7 9 13 14 17 20 21 21 22 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 18 28 41 53 61 85 101 120 120 125 141 134 116 114 114 200 MB DIV 55 37 23 28 49 41 35 53 75 89 162 108 94 71 59 44 63 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -3 6 5 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 178 211 244 295 323 266 222 312 231 120 179 267 76 11 -21 0 82 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 16.9 16.3 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 62.9 63.9 64.9 65.9 68.1 70.6 73.2 75.6 77.7 79.3 81.1 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 11 11 13 13 12 9 8 9 9 8 6 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 48 43 44 57 54 64 61 76 50 71 66 45 47 40 35 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 40. 44. 47. 49. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 6. 10. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 20. 34. 43. 54. 60. 64. 67. 69. 70. 75. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 62.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 5.9% 22.8% 66.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.4% 39.9% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% 8.7% 35.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/30/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 24 30 40 54 63 74 80 84 87 89 58 43 50 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 29 39 53 62 73 79 83 86 88 57 42 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 36 50 59 70 76 80 83 85 54 39 46 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT