* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 10/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 34 42 53 62 66 73 76 77 81 82 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 34 42 53 62 66 73 76 77 81 82 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 41 47 53 59 62 60 56 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 17 14 10 5 8 5 9 6 3 8 11 18 22 21 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -6 -4 -2 -2 -4 0 -2 -2 3 7 6 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 68 73 74 67 58 52 36 39 19 47 60 159 162 159 171 185 188 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 158 159 159 156 157 160 159 158 158 158 159 158 158 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 151 150 149 144 148 154 156 156 154 151 150 147 147 150 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 44 41 43 46 49 49 53 49 45 37 36 32 31 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 48 59 54 22 13 10 9 16 12 4 -12 -25 -38 -21 -11 -2 -1 200 MB DIV 22 21 22 12 9 -11 -4 -7 -8 -21 0 11 -9 -25 -31 -17 -1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1961 1958 1925 1901 1886 1887 1935 2029 2182 2338 2464 2378 2281 2222 2178 2121 2028 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.1 125.4 125.5 125.6 125.7 126.1 126.6 127.4 128.8 130.5 132.2 133.6 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 3 2 4 6 8 9 8 5 4 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 27 25 24 23 23 25 27 28 28 27 25 24 24 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 37. 41. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 9. 17. 28. 37. 41. 48. 51. 52. 56. 57. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 125.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 10/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.9% 11.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 6.0% 7.8% 3.6% 0.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.9% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 2.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.9% 7.3% 3.9% 0.1% 1.2% 4.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 10/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 10/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 28 34 42 53 62 66 73 76 77 81 82 85 87 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 32 40 51 60 64 71 74 75 79 80 83 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 29 37 48 57 61 68 71 72 76 77 80 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 42 51 55 62 65 66 70 71 74 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT