* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 54 60 65 64 65 58 58 54 51 47 44 V (KT) LAND 25 28 28 31 35 41 50 57 62 61 62 47 35 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 27 32 37 42 47 50 53 53 43 34 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 12 11 9 12 7 12 13 20 21 28 30 37 39 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 -4 -3 -6 -1 -7 0 -6 0 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 337 336 326 335 319 311 304 255 235 248 251 266 259 263 262 275 264 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.3 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 167 167 171 165 159 157 155 155 154 157 161 158 155 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 149 148 156 145 135 131 128 128 126 129 131 126 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 7 4 6 3 6 3 6 3 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 61 61 58 63 62 61 57 59 59 65 62 66 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 5 6 4 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 19 19 25 -3 21 -8 35 -4 -13 -71 -55 -58 -9 -35 -19 200 MB DIV 13 7 6 1 20 24 27 35 21 3 1 9 24 1 -8 13 6 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 -4 -3 2 3 1 1 4 3 5 2 -6 -2 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 171 90 -10 1 40 139 178 137 141 113 40 -15 -83 -80 -60 -36 -35 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.1 27.1 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.4 80.4 81.3 82.2 84.0 85.3 86.1 86.7 87.3 87.7 87.7 87.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 6 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 64 58 52 44 74 38 28 31 34 36 29 34 7 7 28 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 37. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. -1. -5. -11. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -8. -7. -9. -9. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 29. 36. 40. 39. 40. 33. 33. 29. 26. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.3 78.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.8% 13.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 35.8% 23.9% 16.1% 8.2% 37.8% 47.0% 59.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.6% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% Consensus: 4.8% 20.4% 13.1% 9.0% 2.8% 13.3% 20.2% 20.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 28 31 35 41 50 57 62 61 62 47 35 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 27 31 37 46 53 58 57 58 43 31 26 24 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 43 50 55 54 55 40 28 23 21 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 34 41 46 45 46 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT