* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 65 69 72 70 72 67 66 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 31 36 44 52 62 66 69 67 69 57 42 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 33 39 45 51 57 61 63 63 61 41 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 10 9 5 8 4 9 12 13 17 20 27 29 36 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 336 352 341 324 339 309 335 273 268 229 259 251 266 262 265 272 273 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.2 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 169 167 171 171 163 159 159 156 155 153 155 160 162 166 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 150 148 152 153 141 134 132 128 128 126 127 128 131 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 7 4 6 3 6 3 5 2 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 60 60 59 59 64 63 64 61 67 66 70 68 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 9 8 9 9 9 7 8 5 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 13 22 32 27 21 33 -3 16 -12 18 -26 -18 -75 -44 -59 -27 -58 200 MB DIV 1 20 12 -2 -2 20 0 51 0 19 -12 30 2 30 -5 55 17 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 -4 3 3 1 4 0 6 0 5 -4 3 -5 4 LAND (KM) 236 148 61 -3 41 139 215 204 190 181 146 77 -2 -47 -42 -96 -167 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4 26.1 27.0 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.6 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.9 79.8 80.7 81.6 83.4 84.8 85.7 86.4 86.8 87.3 87.5 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 73 59 59 53 58 50 34 30 35 41 44 30 31 33 19 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -2. -6. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 40. 44. 47. 45. 47. 42. 41. 38. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.0 78.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.3% 13.9% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 34.5% 22.6% 11.7% 6.0% 32.4% 43.4% 62.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 7.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 2.8% 1.0% Consensus: 4.5% 20.4% 12.9% 7.5% 2.0% 11.2% 19.6% 21.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 31 36 44 52 62 66 69 67 69 57 42 33 29 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 27 32 40 48 58 62 65 63 65 53 38 29 25 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 26 34 42 52 56 59 57 59 47 32 23 19 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 36 46 50 53 51 53 41 26 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT