* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 42 52 58 64 66 69 68 70 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 26 33 41 51 57 64 65 69 55 41 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 20 24 27 30 34 39 43 48 52 44 35 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 9 7 11 8 13 9 10 8 12 16 18 17 22 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 -4 -2 -7 0 -6 0 -6 1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 332 337 352 335 324 335 315 319 260 234 232 224 246 234 252 258 269 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 167 167 171 171 167 163 162 162 163 168 168 168 167 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 148 149 153 152 147 140 137 136 136 138 141 145 148 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 62 59 60 58 62 60 59 60 64 63 63 59 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 8 6 7 5 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 4 10 22 33 22 33 5 40 7 52 20 13 -41 -38 -61 -47 -97 200 MB DIV -1 9 18 11 -4 15 23 22 25 29 26 4 10 0 9 19 13 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 -2 0 0 0 4 3 2 3 1 -2 3 -2 LAND (KM) 275 163 75 -19 19 141 264 266 147 84 68 18 -8 -43 -72 -126 -195 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.6 79.5 80.5 81.5 83.5 85.3 86.9 88.1 89.3 90.3 90.9 91.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 80 66 57 50 46 48 38 41 67 44 30 34 38 14 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -5. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 22. 32. 38. 44. 46. 49. 48. 50. 48. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.3 77.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 17.5% 8.7% 3.4% 1.6% 11.9% 32.5% 51.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 6.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 4.0% 10.8% 17.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 22 26 33 41 51 57 64 65 69 55 41 32 29 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 24 31 39 49 55 62 63 67 53 39 30 27 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 20 27 35 45 51 58 59 63 49 35 26 23 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT