* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 46 49 51 49 42 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 46 49 51 49 42 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 39 42 44 44 39 34 29 24 22 20 21 24 31 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 27 30 30 39 36 38 27 23 44 40 26 17 18 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 9 13 10 9 10 6 8 -1 -3 0 1 -5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 268 264 260 263 262 277 268 289 273 262 271 263 214 217 239 231 214 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.3 28.6 27.2 21.2 23.2 21.9 18.4 16.2 13.9 13.0 12.3 13.0 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 134 128 130 149 131 89 101 95 83 76 71 67 68 67 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 112 108 110 127 115 82 94 90 79 72 68 64 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.3 -49.6 -47.8 -49.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 62 57 57 55 51 49 51 53 54 54 56 61 62 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 16 21 23 23 21 20 17 10 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 28 27 35 41 16 13 96 154 160 99 131 209 214 237 170 200 MB DIV 56 48 36 59 69 28 8 -4 14 46 70 60 73 57 8 -4 -1 700-850 TADV 3 7 13 30 26 39 11 -24 -73 -154 50 35 35 61 -16 -33 -43 LAND (KM) 245 312 334 348 406 455 568 564 1044 1733 819 122 287 555 849 833 610 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.0 38.5 38.9 39.4 40.4 41.4 42.2 42.5 43.5 47.2 52.6 57.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.3 69.8 68.1 66.2 61.9 56.5 49.8 41.3 30.5 18.8 11.9 10.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 16 19 23 28 35 44 41 30 21 13 16 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 2 7 35 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. 13. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 2. -7. -14. -20. -28. -36. -41. -46. -49. -49. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -8. -14. -17. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 19. 21. 19. 12. 4. -10. -19. -27. -32. -35. -34. -31. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.4 72.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.1% 8.7% 5.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.4% 3.1% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 08/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 40 46 49 51 49 42 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 43 45 43 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 35 37 35 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT