* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 08/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 44 44 39 32 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 44 44 39 32 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 35 32 29 26 24 22 21 19 19 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 24 27 24 31 29 28 30 30 22 36 34 43 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 6 3 10 7 10 7 10 9 10 10 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 261 269 272 265 273 274 266 282 297 270 262 246 252 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.5 22.9 24.5 23.7 21.9 20.8 21.5 14.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 135 139 136 138 135 132 134 96 108 104 95 91 93 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 112 115 114 116 114 114 116 87 99 98 91 86 88 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 59 58 54 50 46 47 56 61 61 57 56 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 15 18 18 16 12 9 8 8 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 15 28 26 29 20 34 13 -5 29 9 29 51 -10 -137 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 57 42 20 41 41 5 -12 2 -18 4 21 42 23 -87 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 6 15 16 20 17 -31 -39 -37 -35 0 -14 36 43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 143 211 275 350 373 474 515 618 632 1046 1690 1196 309 62 -411 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 37.1 37.6 38.0 38.4 39.2 40.3 41.2 41.5 41.1 40.8 41.5 43.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.3 73.3 72.1 70.7 69.1 65.4 61.0 55.9 49.9 42.6 33.7 23.5 12.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 25 30 36 40 40 39 30 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 7 11 11 7 7 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. -1. -7. -14. -19. -25. -31. -40. -49. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -4. -7. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 14. 7. 0. -3. -8. -16. -22. -30. -31. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.6 74.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.3% 8.4% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.5% 3.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 08/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 41 44 44 39 32 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 37 40 40 35 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 33 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 23 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT