* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 08/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 39 41 38 30 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 31 35 41 43 40 33 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 27 26 24 21 19 17 16 16 16 17 23 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 23 28 32 27 33 25 27 26 25 14 16 20 36 56 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 0 -1 0 7 1 9 11 8 4 5 6 0 12 16 0 SHEAR DIR 307 296 265 279 282 282 287 280 280 280 302 258 281 231 223 231 245 SST (C) 28.6 26.9 26.5 27.1 27.4 28.1 26.9 28.5 27.3 26.5 25.6 24.4 23.1 22.5 17.2 13.8 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 122 118 125 129 139 125 147 132 123 116 108 101 96 81 76 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 100 98 103 107 116 106 125 114 109 106 102 96 90 78 74 73 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 4 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 67 70 68 66 62 59 58 55 52 52 54 49 39 28 32 47 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 12 14 17 16 13 10 7 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -8 14 27 25 42 22 36 5 -6 11 -2 -39 -84 -47 -37 -9 200 MB DIV 0 23 58 48 21 46 9 2 -13 26 -20 -8 -10 5 22 62 -220 700-850 TADV 9 6 9 12 19 23 29 14 -2 -29 -15 -77 -32 -62 -20 41 77 LAND (KM) -8 44 119 177 247 367 428 472 579 636 1016 1615 1479 709 21 -140 -387 LAT (DEG N) 36.1 36.5 37.0 37.3 37.7 38.3 39.2 40.2 41.1 41.2 40.3 39.4 38.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.9 75.4 74.6 73.6 72.4 69.5 66.1 61.9 56.8 50.9 44.1 35.9 26.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 13 15 18 21 24 29 35 37 32 42 49 45 HEAT CONTENT 13 0 1 2 2 18 2 36 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 6. -1. -9. -15. -22. -25. -28. -32. -38. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 21. 18. 10. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 36.1 75.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 08/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 27 31 35 41 43 40 33 25 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 36 38 35 28 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 30 32 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT