* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 08/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 39 43 43 43 42 35 25 21 20 23 28 31 V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 34 41 45 46 45 44 37 27 23 22 25 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 25 26 27 30 31 30 29 28 25 21 18 17 17 17 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 23 31 29 34 36 32 30 23 16 9 8 4 7 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 5 4 11 8 5 4 1 2 4 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 299 298 286 258 272 279 284 291 282 302 321 42 52 81 259 250 247 SST (C) 29.7 27.8 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.5 28.7 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.6 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 133 117 120 124 130 131 149 130 128 127 135 127 119 111 105 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 108 96 99 102 108 110 127 112 113 114 119 113 107 100 96 91 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 68 65 60 56 54 47 41 36 37 33 30 29 27 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 9 10 11 15 17 18 19 21 17 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -10 17 24 48 10 39 23 9 8 -26 -47 -49 -66 -91 -74 200 MB DIV 33 0 24 67 45 33 38 -2 -12 -7 -53 -38 -29 -15 -8 6 -10 700-850 TADV 5 8 8 9 8 19 26 46 27 20 -4 2 -23 -10 -32 -26 -29 LAND (KM) -35 13 85 137 188 320 369 445 592 800 1075 1434 1749 2081 1738 1334 1006 LAT (DEG N) 35.8 36.3 36.8 37.2 37.6 38.3 38.9 39.7 40.1 39.5 37.7 35.9 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.2 75.7 75.0 74.2 73.2 70.7 67.6 63.8 59.1 53.7 48.3 43.7 39.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 12 13 17 20 22 22 19 18 20 20 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 26 4 0 1 1 4 5 32 3 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 6. -1. -9. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30. -30. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 6. -3. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 23. 23. 23. 22. 15. 5. 1. -0. 3. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 35.8 76.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.4% 3.9% 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 08/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 08/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 27 30 34 41 45 46 45 44 37 27 23 22 25 30 33 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 36 40 41 40 39 32 22 18 17 20 25 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 30 34 35 34 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT