* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 06/29/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 41 41 37 36 37 40 44 49 55 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 41 41 37 36 34 38 32 37 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 36 34 30 26 26 25 24 29 33 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 5 8 13 28 32 40 39 39 26 29 20 12 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 1 2 3 -1 7 -2 0 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 336 343 349 327 320 300 276 287 290 293 294 315 322 334 331 24 19 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.9 28.5 27.7 28.6 28.2 27.8 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 135 135 133 138 146 135 147 141 135 157 155 155 166 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 135 135 133 138 146 135 147 140 129 149 146 142 151 150 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 71 71 64 65 59 60 56 53 49 45 45 44 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -6 -8 -19 -26 -33 -17 -15 -28 -34 -40 -59 -86 -96 -89 -83 200 MB DIV 54 53 43 47 50 6 14 17 2 2 -22 -23 -22 -21 -9 -21 -4 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 0 2 8 16 17 20 23 12 9 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 729 651 603 558 542 519 280 356 327 183 45 11 25 -42 22 81 93 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.4 11.5 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.5 17.7 19.0 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 48.0 49.5 51.1 52.7 56.0 59.2 62.3 65.4 68.3 70.8 72.9 74.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 16 15 12 10 10 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 30 40 37 52 38 34 38 48 36 71 40 36 48 69 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -4. -11. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -22. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 12. 11. 12. 15. 19. 24. 30. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 46.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 06/29/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 23.3% 15.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 47.4% 33.9% 11.7% 5.0% 17.2% 15.3% 15.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 18.3% 8.8% 0.8% 0.3% 3.8% 15.4% 2.1% Consensus: 6.1% 29.7% 19.4% 7.8% 1.7% 7.0% 14.4% 5.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 06/29/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 06/29/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 35 37 40 41 41 37 36 34 38 32 37 43 47 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 33 36 37 37 33 32 30 34 28 33 39 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 28 31 32 32 28 27 25 29 23 28 34 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 23 24 24 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT