* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 06/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 26 30 33 41 40 48 43 37 36 33 27 23 12 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 6 5 -1 -4 0 0 4 4 5 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 291 273 274 265 255 266 262 267 259 272 267 272 281 299 279 289 295 SST (C) 25.9 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 113 118 122 123 125 122 119 119 121 124 126 132 136 138 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 109 113 117 120 118 114 108 103 103 105 108 111 117 123 124 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 68 63 62 63 61 60 60 63 57 51 45 37 35 39 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -6 -22 -24 -23 -46 -53 -83 -72 -74 -61 -33 -52 -64 -76 -86 -102 200 MB DIV 50 51 58 71 72 39 60 5 -10 -19 -1 8 -2 -4 -23 -1 -28 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -6 0 7 17 27 35 0 -2 -19 -12 -3 9 14 18 13 LAND (KM) 1517 1451 1415 1393 1413 1466 1466 1424 1394 1349 1311 1253 1207 1143 1043 959 939 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.7 16.7 18.6 20.4 21.5 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.1 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 42.5 44.2 45.9 47.4 50.0 51.6 52.5 52.9 53.3 53.6 54.1 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 14 9 5 2 2 3 2 4 6 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 1 13 6 9 8 6 8 11 14 16 22 15 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -11. -20. -30. -37. -41. -43. -46. -46. -45. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -12. -8. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 40.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 06/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 06/29/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 19 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT