* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962020 06/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 26 33 45 50 46 53 44 38 32 30 18 19 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 5 2 0 0 1 -8 -7 -2 0 0 0 1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 290 283 267 272 278 254 257 249 254 252 257 254 253 272 309 288 337 SST (C) 26.6 25.5 25.3 25.0 25.7 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.4 26.8 25.9 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 112 110 108 114 120 120 120 114 116 119 124 127 121 113 111 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 112 110 107 114 117 112 108 100 100 103 108 111 106 100 98 94 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -55.3 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 65 62 63 62 59 62 60 56 53 53 50 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 2 -11 -33 -39 -64 -66 -68 -74 -72 -60 -57 -70 -61 -62 -66 200 MB DIV 10 38 53 53 44 41 52 69 15 0 9 -2 17 23 22 10 30 700-850 TADV 3 -8 -18 -17 -5 30 39 37 24 4 -4 -10 0 0 14 7 16 LAND (KM) 1755 1787 1718 1655 1620 1664 1738 1710 1641 1589 1517 1442 1396 1426 1579 1830 1688 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.3 18.7 20.8 22.5 23.5 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 38.1 39.7 41.4 43.2 46.3 48.5 49.9 50.9 51.6 52.4 53.3 54.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 17 13 9 5 4 4 5 6 8 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 0 0 0 1 7 6 1 2 3 6 8 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 19 CX,CY: -15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -11. -21. -32. -40. -44. -47. -49. -51. -49. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -18. -18. -18. -16. -14. -10. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 36.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962020 INVEST 06/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962020 INVEST 06/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962020 INVEST 06/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT